Contents

Chapter 1

Experiment Design Guide

How to design a rigorous A/B test that produces trustworthy results.

Pre-Experiment Checklist

1. Define the hypothesis clearly

  • Bad: "The new design is better"
  • Good: "Reducing signup form fields from 8 to 4 increases completion rate by at least 5pp"

2. Choose the primary metric

  • Must be directly affected by the change
  • Must be measurable within the experiment timeframe
  • Must have low enough variance to detect your MDE

3. Calculate sample size

  • Use required_sample_size_proportions() for conversion metrics
  • Use required_sample_size_means() for continuous metrics
  • Rule of thumb: if you can't run for at least 7 days, your MDE is too small

4. Define guardrail metrics

  • Revenue, error rates, engagement — things that must not degrade
  • Set specific thresholds for each

5. Plan for multiple testing

  • One primary metric (p<0.05 threshold)
  • Apply Bonferroni correction for secondary metrics

Common Pitfalls

PitfallWhy It's BadFix
Peeking at resultsInflates false positive rateUse sequential testing
Under-powered testHigh chance of missing real effectsCalculate sample size first
Too many variantsDilutes traffic, extends runtimeMax 3-4 variants
Wrong randomization unitUsers see inconsistent experienceRandomize by user, not session
Novelty effectInitial lift fades over timeRun for 2+ weeks minimum
Day-of-week effectsWeekend vs weekday behavior differsRun for complete weeks (7, 14, 21 days)

Sample Size Rules of Thumb

Baseline RateMDE (absolute)Approx. N per group
5%1pp~7,000
5%2pp~2,000
10%1pp~14,000
10%2pp~4,000
20%2pp~6,000
20%5pp~1,000
50%5pp~1,600

These assume alpha=0.05, power=0.80, two-sided test.

Chapter 2
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Interpreting A/B Test Results

Chapter 3
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Experiment Design Guide

Chapter 4
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Interpreting A/B Test Results

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